I didn’t watch Donald Trump’s State of the Union a few days ago. I just couldn’t bring myself to do it. And, apparently, I wasn’t alone. Viewership, it seems, was way down. Which, I guess, given what he had to say, was a good thing. Trump not only lied, but he lied a lot, even by his standards. And, yes, for what it’s worth, I think that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi was justified in tearing up her copy of Trump’s speech, which she later referred to as a “manifesto of mistruths.” Not only was it completely called for, but, in doing so, she was able to keep the attention on the content of what Donald Trump actually said, rather than his calculated attempts to appear like a legitimate president by doing things like recognizing war heroes, bestowing medals, and the like.
In the State of the Union, Donald Trump lied about a number of things. He lied about fighting to protect people with pre-existing conditions. [He said, “we will always protect patients with pre-existing conditions.” He called it an “ironclad pledge.” In reality, however, the Trump administration is actively pursuing court cases to remove the current protections in place to protect people with pre-existing conditions.] He lied about protecting Medicare and Social Security. [He said, “We will always protect your Medicare and your Social Security, always.” Just two weeks ago, however, he said in an interview with CNCB’s Joe Kernen that “entitlement” programs would soon be on the chopping block. And, from what we’re hearing about his 2020 budget, it’s already happening. The administration, it would seem, is calling for $25 billion in cuts from Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) over the next ten years and $800 billion in Medicaid cuts over the same period.] And, of course, he lied about the economy. And that’s what I’m hoping to spend a little time on right now.
Here are just a few examples of statements about the economy made by Donald Trump during his racist, lie filled, and deeply offensive State of the Union address… His quotes are bold.
“Our economy is the best it has ever been.” -Donald Trump
It’s true that the economic expansion begun under the administration of President Barack Obama is now in its 11th year. It is also true that our unemployment rate has hit a 50-year low. Both of these are good things to be sure. When it comes to wage growth, however, and the overall strength of the economy, there have certainly been much better times for our country. Here, to give you sense of Trump’s economy in context, is a chart from economic analyst Steven Rattner showing GDP growth under the last 12 administrations.
And, as for unemployment and job growth, the issue is a bit more complex than Donald Trump would have you believe. First, the unemployment number reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just counts as “unemployed” those people who have active sought employment in the past four weeks. [So, if people drop out of the economy, even temporality, it doesn’t count them as unemployed. It also doesn’t count those who are underemployed, having to work multiple jobs to make ends meet, etc.] And, more importantly, while unemployment may be the lowest it’s been in 50 years, the rate at which it’s dropping is not. Here’s another graph from Steven Rattner. This one shows Trump’s unemployment numbers in relation to Obama’s. As Rattner points out, “the downtrend is simply a continuation from the Obama administration, which oversaw a 5.3 percentage point decline from the peak vs. Trump’s 1.2 percent improvement.”
And, when you look the raw data, you see that Obama created more jobs in his last 35 months in office that Trump did in his first 35 months. It’s also worth remembering, when you hear Donald Trump crowing about how good his unemployment numbers are, that he referred to these same reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics as “a total fiction” back when Obama was president. Apparently something changed, though, when Trump became president, causing positive unemployment reports to no longer be a “hoax.”
“We are restoring our nation’s manufacturing might, even though predictions were that this could never be done. After losing 60,000 factories under the previous two administrations, America has now gained 12,000 new factories under my administration.” -Donald Trump
While there have been new manufacturing companies launched under Donald Trump, it’s not true to say that “12,000 new factories” were opened. According to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, fewer than 11,000 new manufacturing establishments came on-line since Trump took office. And, more importantly, most of those weren’t what anyone would consider factories. In fact, more than 8,000 of these entities employ five or fewer people. Furthermore, according to economic analyst Steven Rattner, the manufacturing sector, relatively speaking, is now the smallest that it’s been in 72 years. So, when Trump talks of a “manufacturing renaissance,” he’s lying. Here’s a chart from Rattner.
“From the instant I took office, I moved rapidly to revive the U.S. economy — slashing a record number of job-killing regulations, enacting historic and record-setting tax cuts.” -Donald Trump
They weren’t “record setting tax cuts.” As the New York Times points out, relative to the size of the economy, Trump’s was the 8th largest in history. “President Trump’s tax cuts were initially estimated at $1.5 trillion over 10 years by the Congressional Budget Office, an estimate that has since grown to around $2 trillion,” the New York Times reported. “But those figures are nowhere close to a record tax cut. As a share of the economy, Mr. Trump’s cuts rank around No. 8, according to Treasury Department data.” More importantly, though, they didn’t help the economy as much as we were told that they would, and they didn’t pay for themselves, as we were promised.
So, no, Trump’s tax cuts did not “revive” the U.S. economy. And it’s also not true that he “inherited a mess,” as he likes to claim. The truth is, he inherited an economy in recovery, and that recovery has continued… And it’s continued in large part due to the irresponsible tax cuts for the wealthy noted above, and the administration’s insistence on growing the federal deficit.
Here’s an interesting factoid from Forbes: “From the day after Obama’s election in November 2008 until Trump’s election eight years later the S&P 500 rose 113%.” So, again, no, he didn’t inherit a mess. Not by a long shot. And Obama did it without growing the federal deficit to over $1 trillion, which is what Donald Trump has done.
If you want to understand what’s actually happening, I’d encourage you to read Paul Krugman’s most recent op-ed in the Times, which explains how the Republicans, under the guise of fiscal responsibility hobbled the Obama recovery, and then went on an all-out spending spree under Trump, in order to irresponsibly juice the economy. [As Krugman points out, “we’re getting as much deficit stimulus now as in 2012, when the unemployment rate was 8%.”]
“Since my election, U.S. stock markets have soared 70 percent, adding more than $12 trillion to our nation’s wealth, transcending anything anyone believed was possible. This is a record.” -Donald Trump
The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average aren’t up by 70%. They’re up by about 60% each. And, again, the growth rate was higher under Obama. I know I just said this, but it bears repeating… “From the day after Obama’s election in November 2008 until Trump’s election eight years later the S&P 500 rose 113%.” So if the stock market is up by 60% under Trump, that’s approximately half of what it rose under Obama.
I could go on – there’s a lot more to say – but Arlo is still down with the stomach flu, and I told him that I’d watch Hitchcock’s The 39 Steps with him. And I love him more that I love you. [Yesterday we watched North By Northwest.]
